FICC | Currencies

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Beijing’s quiet pivot toward RMB strength and a deep valuation discount set the stage for a multi-year appreciation. Our latest FX Insight explores why we see the CNY rising to 6.5–6.8 versus the USD over the next year.

Speculative froth has built up across all precious metals, yet gold’s structural tailwinds will allow it to weather corrections better than its peers.

The dollar’s early 2025 decline was a reflection of a global rush to hedge accumulated USD exposure, not a mass exodus from US assets. With most hedging now complete, currency moves should again follow fundamentals, setting the stage for a tactical USD rebound in the months ahead.

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.

Special Report

The US Treasury safe haven status is being seriously questioned. We assess whether US Treasuries are still unrivaled or which bond markets and assets are gaining ground. We do so by breaking down which global bond markets are best positioned to absorb risk-off flows in a shifting macro regime.

The Fed is mispriced for the rest of 2025. We explain why the dollar is poised to rebound and the trades to position for it.

From Treasurys to tokenization, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the most disruptive forces in global finance, with the power to compress yields, deepen dollar penetration, and shift the balance within crypto markets. Explore BCA’s latest insights on their growing impact.

The ECB stood pat today, yet the policy path remains fraught with uncertainty as domestic resilience collides with global headwinds. This dichotomy continues to hold important implications for European assets over the coming months.

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.