Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted. Some version is guaranteed to pass – but higher bond yields and inflation will weigh on the economy and stock market....
Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both stocks and bonds until a major market does become fragile, or until r...
The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing....
Return expectations have changed for Buyouts, but not equally for Large+ and Middle Market deals. While tariffs are dramatically reducing investor expectations, our return expectations are modestly increasing—with Large+ leading. In Part 2, we will tackle Private Credit....
The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation concerns, while a positive one reflects growth optimism. In recent months, however, this signal broke ...
Europe’s telecoms are cheap just as Brussels moves to tear down barriers and spark cross border consolidation. Read why this blend of high yield, defensive earnings, and a powerful policy catalyst sets the stage for a major sector re rating....
Risk assets rallied hard following the Great Geneva De-escalation, but we are not enamored of risk assets’ risk-reward profile. Forward-looking survey data remain awful on balance and we continue to recommend a defensive asset allocation profile....
The prevailing narrative around the world is that Chinese households are not spending enough and that China has overly relied on exports for economic growth. Some parts of this conjecture are incorrect. The primary economic imbalance in China is neither inadequate consumption nor outsized exports. T...
Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled....
This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels between 2025 and 2020, then highlights some important differences,...
