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Insights

Access expert research, timely insights, and exclusive webcasts to help you make confident, data-driven decisions.

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Report
Investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to both equities and the economy. Despite a rising long end, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and both nominal growth and corporate profits is at five-year lows and falling. Remain overweight equities. Within Fixed Income,...
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Webcast Replay

Mathieu Savary, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim discussed:

  • Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war.
  • How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
  • How will El Nino impact agricultural commodities and which crops are most exposed?
  • How have recent shocks affected commodity prices, inflation, and inflation expectations?
  • How will policy makers respond to these shocks? What are the monetary, fiscal, trade, and foreign policy implications?
  • How will global financial markets respond? Where are the tactical and cyclical opportunities to be found?
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Report
The wide crack spread reflects a bifurcated oil market. The severity of the crude oil disruption has recently softened, while the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts have created a perfect storm for refined product markets. Going forward, even though conditions are not yet in place for the crack sp...
01 Sep 2026
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Report
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, counterbalanced by a slight overweight to bonds, and a significant overweight to cash. The model is positive on the US dollar, modestly negative on gold, and bullish on copper and oil....
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Report
We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.9% over the next 10-to-15 years. In this update, we include hedging costs projections and revamp our scenario analysis to incorporate hypothetical outcomes to the AI capex cycle. ...
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Report
An investor might not guess it from the Trump administration’s impatience with bond-market, military and tariff roadblocks, but the US economy is faring just fine. Asset allocators should remain fully invested as per their benchmarks....
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Report
Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read.This quick Insight is neither sober nor data driven. It is hyperbolic and based on “vibes.” ...
27 Aug 2026
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Webcast Replay

Noah Holds Barred Webcast: Episode 4 (Special Edition): Defense Wins Championships: Aerospace & Defense In A Multipolar World

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist, Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior Vice President, Sales

Thursday, August 27
10:30 AM-11:00 AM EDT | 3:30 PM-4:00 PM BST | 4:30 PM-5:00 PM CEST

Key topics discussed:

  • The increasing frequency of global conflicts that fail to resolve into durable ceasefires
  • Near-term risk to the S&P 500 from an intensification of the Ukraine war
  • Risk of a post-midterm re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict
  • Trump-Xi thaw and US-China security competition as drivers of global military spending
  • The impact of the spending outlook on aerospace and defense stocks
  • Do stock prices reflect the impact of a multipolar world?
  • Potential ways to hedge ongoing geopolitical tensions
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Report
Poland’s near-term growth story remains compelling: surging EU investment should cushion European weakness and support equity outperformance. But the clock is ticking. Demographics, skills shortages, and fiscal deterioration will increasingly constrain convergence. Favor Polish equities and the bell...
27 Aug 2026
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Report
US aerospace and defense stocks still have a structural tailwind from geopolitics, but face rising cyclical challenges from macro and market fundamentals, as well as eventual Iran and Ukraine ceasefires and political change in the United States....