Supply Shocks: From El Nino To The Ayatollah

Mathieu Savary, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim discussed:

• Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war.
• How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
• How will El Nino impact agricultural commodities and which crops are most exposed?
• How have recent shocks affected commodity prices, inflation, and inflation expectations?
• How will policy makers respond to these shocks? What are the monetary, fiscal, trade, and foreign policy implications?
• How will global financial markets respond? Where are the tactical and cyclical opportunities to be found?