Clients are universally asking us when we expect President Trump to activate the legendary “Trump Put.” We believe that the S&P 500 would have to correct by more than 10% to practically guarantee a put. We are open minded that it could occur before; it could also occur later. But a double-digit ...
An energy price spike caused by a Middle Eastern war almost guarantees that Republicans will lose control of the House, and the chance of a Democratic Senate victory increases from 35% to 40%....
This screener report builds on the US Equity Strategy and Equity Analyzer collaboration published on 23 February 2026, where we introduced our latest framework for assessing the US business cycle. Here, we apply the framework to our screener to identify how bottom-up equity positioning should adapt ...
In the short term, there is plenty to be worried about in macro beyond the Middle East. The market was on thin ice before the Iran conflict. In the long term, the base case scenario remains bullish, but the war in the Middle East needs to be brief....
The war in Iran is disrupting global oil and LNG flows and remains a threat to regional energy infrastructure. Energy price risks remain skewed to the upside over the near term....
Our Global Investment strategists argue that AI threatens the traditional profit engines of large technology firms despite boosting productivity. Tech companies have historically relied on economies of scale, network effects, and proprietary technologies, but AI may erode these advantages. Although ...
US assets have underperformed year-to-date, but BCA views differ on the tactical versus 12-month outlook. Since the start of the year, US markets have lagged the rest of the world, largely driven by the sell-off in software and AI-related stocks. The next phase for US versus the rest of the world wa...
Since 1970, every US recession excluding the pandemic downturn was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. As I write this, WTI is trading at $71/bbl, up 24% year-to-date and up 19% relative to the Q4 2025 average. That said, today’s oil price is still only 8% higher than the average for all of 2025...
