We propose a unified framework for predicting the direction of short-term interest rates and long-term bond yields that brings together three approaches: 1) the saving-investment approach; 2) the Taylor rule approach; and 3) the portfolio balance approach. Our analysis suggests that bond yields in t...
There is no evidence that there is a run on US government bonds. All the data at our disposal, and the curated views of our bond specialists, suggest that the US bond market may have 99 problems, but a coordinated run on its safe haven status is not one. ...
The yen's next leg isn't a fiscal story, it's an inflation one, and the BoJ is about to admit it. We lay out why a September pivot sends USD/JPY toward 99, and why global risk assets won't pay the price....
President Trump referred to the US-Venezuela agreement as the “biggest oil deal in world history.” However, oil production growth constraints limit its near-term impact on global crude markets. Instead, Middle East developments will continue to dominate oil’s trajectory over the coming months. ...
China’s manufacturing edge should endure in the next few years. AI will challenge the country’s advantage in some industries, but geopolitics and weakening productive investment pose greater threats to sustaining China’s industrial leadership....
Next week’s CPI and PPI reports will be much more important determinants of the near-term Fed policy path than this morning’s employment report. However, if the trend of labor market tightening continues through year-end, it could lead to a re-acceleration of wage growth in 2027....
We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale....
High-profile adoptions of the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) and the often-cited outperformance of TPA funds have generated FOMO among funds following an SAA framework. Buzzwords and vague rulesets frustrate anyone trying to learn more. We combed through the TPA literature, built practical examples,...
Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil prices are obviously the conduit between that policy and the markets. On the other hand, growth is al...
