Insights
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BCA Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Roukaya Ibrahim, and Noah Weisberger looked at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.
Topics discussed:
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy markets are tightening again. Is the shock being underpriced?
- What would a sustained disruption mean for the global growth–inflation trade-off? Is stagflation risk creeping back?
- Within commodities, where is the real asymmetry now? What’s crowded, and what still offers upside?
- Can strategic reserve releases truly cap the rally, or do they just delay the adjustment?
- Equities have remained resilient. Are markets looking through the shock, or misreading it?
- Where is the tipping point: how much further can oil rise before equities reprice meaningfully?
- If crude continues higher, which sectors and factors offer the most convex exposure, not just beta?
- If flows normalize and oil rolls over, where does leadership rotate, and how quickly?
US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2
Noah and Jason discussed:
- What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
- The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
- Why we are long Software
- The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
- Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
- The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight
Please join Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of the Counterpoint service, for a Webcast on:
Thursday, April 30
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST
In this Webcast, Dhaval will explore the interplay between two of the biggest macro drivers right now: Agentic AI; and the global commodity shock.
The discussion will include:
- Can agentic AI extend the tech capex cycle, and who are the winners and losers.
- Can agentic AI boost productivity growth.
- Is the oil shock inflationary, recessionary, or both.
- How does the oil shock’s impact vary by major economy.
- What are the investment conclusions.
If viewing in the BCA App, the live webcast can be viewed here.
Topics discussed:
- Update on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: shipping, attacks, and the state of talks
- How is the global energy market absorbing the shock?
- How will central banks respond to the trade-off between growth and inflation?
- Should investors fade the USD rebound?
- How is the energy crisis rippling across other commodity markets?
Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan, for a Webcast on Thursday, April 23 at 2:00 PM EDT | 7:00 PM BST | 8:00 PM CEST.
Arthur will discuss:
- EM equities: A profitless rally
- EM structural profitability: Little improvement
- China: Making sense of the economy and stock market
- EM Local Bonds: Buy Back On Dips
- EM sovereign credit: As good as it gets
- EM equity and fixed income opportunities
Roukaya discussed:
- What is the status of the global and regional energy sector, including production and distribution?
- How should investors assess the Iran war’s impact on the energy market?
- How will the energy disruption ripple across other markets?
- What are the long-term commodity market implications of the Iran war?