Insights

The US-Iran deal offers temporary relief from oil supply risk, but both Hormuz and trade tensions could revive in 2027....

Kevin Warsh announced an ambitious reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. We discuss the potential impact and the current outlook for interest rates....

Ebola remains one of the world's deadliest viral diseases, but it is far less transmissible than COVID-19 or influenza. The most likely outcome remains containment rather than a global pandemic....

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable....

We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically....

The US-Iran deal is a marginal improvement in global commodity supply risk, but we still give a 60% chance of renewed fighting later this year or in 2027....

The June swoon looks like a rotation and rebalancing-driven air pocket, not a regime break. Economic growth, earnings revisions, and AI-driven capex demand remain firm, but rising yields, inflation concerns, Fed uncertainty, and a looming IPO wave are likely to constrain further multiple expansion. ...

Software has rattled Public Stocks, BDCs, and Asset Managers. Exposure across Private Markets has raised more questions than answers. We size it up. Private Equity is under pressure, Venture Capital is racing ahead, and Credit is pricing in the risk....

On Friday, the MacroQuant equity z-score fell to -1.01, below the critical -1 threshold that often coincided with bear markets in the past. With that in mind, today, I am downgrading stocks to a slight underweight on both a 3-month and a 12-month horizon....

Markets keep buying the dip because liquidity remains plentiful. That buffer lasts through 2026; the bigger question is what happens when it thins in 2027....