Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkab...
In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies....
The bond market has paused its selloff thanks to a revolt by the Republicans in the House of Representatives against much of President Trump’s fiscal agenda. Gone are the lofty projections of the expanded deficit and we are now looking at merely the 2017 tax cuts being extended. This is positive for...
In this report, we reassess our bullish stance on crypto from early 2023, following Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs. While institutional adoption is broadening, there are also signs of excessive exuberance, speculation, and optimism. Given these conditions, a near-term correction appears likely. We ...
Last week’s tariff debacle kicks off a period of heightened global policy uncertainty under the new US administration. That is bad news for financial assets exposed to the business cycle. Meanwhile, it creates an opportunity for safe-haven assets to shine. Gold is capturing headlines for soaring to ...
The 3-3-3 plan pitched by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will need several improbabilities to break its way if it is to meet its goals. We think it is much more likely that the plan will disappoint. Defensive asset allocations will outperform once it becomes clear that 3-3-3 will fall short, but w...
Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?...
This week, our three screeners focus on providing equity insights based on the impact of tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty in general, helping clients identify stocks exposed to these shocks....
Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling....
