MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise....
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows....
Microsoft has gone up in a worryingly near-perfect straight line with dimension 1.098. Take August off before making a big commitment to stocks. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go long USD/HUF....
The Bank of Canada continues to hold its policy rate amid trade uncertainty and shows little concern about the potential economic damage from tariffs. We judge the risks differently and view a bet on more rate cuts this year as attractive....
Using stock-level data for MSCI ACWI country indices going back to 1984 for Developed markets and 1988 for Emerging markets, we find that market concentration adds little predictive power for long term forward returns. Whatever predictive power it has disappears once we include traditional metrics l...
Russia poses an immediate risk to global financial markets, and then perhaps a buying opportunity. Trump is pivoting to ceasefires and trade deals, but Russia could trigger a new tariff shock first....
Investors often ask us which industries the Chinese government is prioritizing for expansion. The assumption is that investing in sectors hand-picked authorities will produce solid investment returns. Yet, this assumption has not held over the past decade....
We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may come....
