Colombian markets will be torn between expectations of future orthodox policies and the reality of a worsening macro backdrop in the next 12 months. To balance risks, we are upgrading Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit from underweight to neutral versus their respective EM benchma...
In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations....
This is the first time that our chartpack does not include any charts on the trade war. Did we just curse our equity overweight? Right as the inflation print comes out and causes agita to the market? Sure, maybe. The tactical ins and outs are not that interesting to us. Far more interesting is the f...
Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers....
Asset prices reflect expectations—but US Office Real Estate expectations are too pessimistic. We present the case for why strong fundamentals will drive performance, despite macro risks....
US tariffs will not derail the low-inflation economic recovery underway in the Euro Area. Investors should overweight European equities, focusing on parts of the market more insulated from tariffs....
Data received since we began reassessing our bearish stance supported our notion that the economy is not as strong as the investor consensus perceives. But the softness will likely have to intensify in July and August to preserve our defensive recommendations....
The Q2 earnings season delivered solid earnings and sales growth and resilient margins, reassuring investors that corporate America remains in good health and is capable of navigating economic uncertainty while mitigating the impact of new trade levies. The outlook is generally positive, but with on...
This week we develop two ideas with three screeners. The first identifies deep cyclical sectors that continue to outperform post Liberation Day in the US. We provide two screens to identify equity opportunities for this. Our final screener identifies momentum stocks that are cheap and trending and w...
