Commodities have not been spared the wrath of the post-"Liberation Day" selloff. However, in the sea of red, gold continues to shine bright, climbing to a fresh record high. How much further does the recent price action have left to run? We explore technical indicators to gauge the likely price outl...
Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether....
This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely to see a rebound, which is actually bad news for the Hong Kong reg...
Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now....
While the market welcomed the pause in Liberation Day tariffs, we believe investors are overly optimistic about the relief from this Trump-driven uncertainty. Even with the pause, current tariff levels remain higher than they were in January. Elevated tariff levels are likely to be inflationary, whi...
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus, it indicates they are planning something different, as China will e...
We believe Beijing views these US trade actions as nothing short of a declaration of economic war, not just a trade dispute. The US-China confrontation is set to escalate from here. Chinese authorities will allow the yuan to depreciate materially. Go short CNH against the US dollar. For EM and Asian...
