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Trading Global Yield Curves: Where Steepeners Still Work
Special Report

Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
The UK Economy Is Sick… Literally
Our Counterpoint strategists recommend a structural overweight in GBP/USD and UK gilts relative to US Treasuries, and a tactical short in China’s CSI 300. Our colleagues argue a sharp rise in long-term sickness and disability has tightened UK labor supply,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The UK Economy Is Sick… Literally
Special Report

A surge in UK employees on long-term sick leave or with a work limiting health condition explains stubbornly high UK wage inflation. This leaves the Bank of England and the UK government with some tough choices to make in the months ahead. Plus, a new tactical trade is short CSI 300.

 

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
UK CPI Hot, But Growth Weakness Points To More BoE Cuts
Hot July inflation does not alter the weakening UK backdrop, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, lifting y/y inflation to 3.8% from 3.6%, while core ticked up to 3.8% from 3.7%. Services inflation remained sticky,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
UK: Tight Financial Conditions, Weak Data Support Gilt Overweight
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The BoE Is Looking In The Rearview Mirror

The BoE is easing, but risks falling behind. Labor and growth cracks are starting to emerge, and the Bank may soon be forced to move more decisively. This report outlines why gilts remain a buy and sterling’s path is diverging vs. USD and EUR.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Robert Timper, Mathieu Savary
The BoE Risks Falling Behind The Curve
The BoE delivered a narrow rate cut to 4%, but a divided vote and fading growth momentum suggest markets are underpricing further easing. Stay overweight UK Gilts. The 5-4 split reflected concerns among dissenters about a stalling disinflation process as…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Flash PMIs Improve, But Low Growth And Trade Frictions Persist
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
UK CPI Runs Hot, But Disinflation Is Still In Sight
June UK CPI surprised to the upside, but weakening leading indicators point to disinflation ahead. Stay overweight Gilts. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y from 3.4%, and core rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. Services inflation held at 4.7%, also above…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Markets Catching Up

Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri

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