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Latest from BCA Research

Special Report This week, we present our key views for Global Fixed Income and FX for 2025.
Special Report Odds are rising that the trade-weighted US dollar will roll over and depreciate sometime next year. However, USD weakness will not be due to stronger ex-US growth. Rather, economic conditions in China and Europe will continue to underwhelm. Therefore, a weaker US dollar will not boost prices of cyclical commodities. That said, when we change our view on the US dollar, we will upgrade our stance on EM financial markets – especially EM domestic bonds.
Special Report We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners. China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate. Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.
While AI deployment creates compelling investment opportunities, hyperscale facilities are not the only path forward. Investors should consider Office conversions into colocation Data Centers as the next dollar opportunity.
This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere Chartpack summarizes our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in 2025.
Four years after the pandemic, it feels like there has not been enough self-reflection of that fascinating period in history. One lesson for the world of finance continues to go ignored.
Special Report Spain has outperformed most developed markets since 2022 – real economic output and risk assets alike. Can it last?
The extraordinary fall of Bashar al-Assad has taken mere days. The Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - made up of the remnants of Al Qaeda (!) - has taken effective control of the country. What are the implications for global investors?