Latest from BCA Research

If Trump’s tariffs are ‘America's Brexit’, then UK gilts will recoup ten years of underperformance versus US T-bonds. Meanwhile, as the AI bubble fully deflates, Europe’s stock market valuation versus the US will rerate by about 25 percent. The big ‘currency’ winner of the structural exodus from the US dollar will be bitcoin. Plus: a trade for the next four weeks is to go tactically long USD/CHF.

Despite marginal de-escalation in tariffs between the US and China, a sustainable trade agreement remains elusive. In the meantime, economic damage continues to mount, and Chinese equities have yet to fully price in the tariff-induced growth deterioration.

While most investors spent the month of April frantically refreshing their Twitter feeds for the next tariff announcement, we reiterate our stance that details on tariffs should be left to day traders. Long-term investors should be focused on the bigger story: the triple selloff in US stocks, bonds and the dollar. Foreign investors perceive that there has been a deterioration in governance in the US, and are requiring a higher risk premium from America. While Trump has walked back some of his most aggressive rhetoric, business investment will not resume unless we get clarity in policy. We continue to recommend a defensive stance, but downgrade duration from overweight to neutral to protect ourselves against shocks to the term premium. We also introduce Bitcoin to ours asset coverage. We upgrade it from underweight to neutral.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Special Report

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US economy will slow, weighing on its neighbors. Canada will fare better than Mexico.

The US will continue to lead global trade, but the past winners from China-US tensions face decline. Reglobalization is underway. India Port Infrastructure will be a long-term winner.

We are closing our tactical long position in the S&P 500 that we initiated on April 8th at a S&P 500 index level of 4983 in the report Tactical Buy Triggers Activated | BCA Research.

Special Report

Cybersecurity is a strategic investment theme, which looks particularly interesting in light of the trade war and heightened geopolitical tensions. It is less exposed to tariffs than other industries and, if anything, benefits from geopolitical tensions as customers seek protection from international cyberattacks and cybercrime. The industry’s fundamentals are improving, while valuations are moderating. A recent pullback presents an attractive entry point into the theme.

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.