We see two risks that could spoil the rally in US risk assets: (1) a tariff-driven stagflation, and (2) a US Treasury tantrum. Our negative view on EM risk assets is primarily driven by the outlook for global trade, which is set to shrink in Q4 this year....
Today’s PCE report was broadly in line with expectations. Real consumer spending rebounded in July but remains only 0.3% above where it was in December....
Commercial indices’ limitations have made Value a fertile ground for stock pickers. Our Composite Value model has shown promise in circumventing these flaws and capturing alpha....
We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assumptions for US pension funds. Investors can obtain better returns by diversifying internationally and...
In this week’s Special Report, we introduce our newly constructed China High-Frequency Index (HFI). The HFI provides a timely measurement of China’s current economic conditions, helping investors to gauge cyclical turning points in the economy earlier and identify mini swings within a business cycle...
Peru’s April 2026 election will inject political volatility, but fundamentals are strong and we are constructive. Buy gold mining equities and gold on dips to capture the supportive global cycle and wait for a more attractive entry point for Peruvian assets....
In Section I, Doug notes that a negative stance toward stocks will require a meaningful and imminent deterioration in the US macro data given the ongoing impact of AI optimism on the global equity market. In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank ...
A surge in UK employees on long-term sick leave or with a work limiting health condition explains stubbornly high UK wage inflation. This leaves the Bank of England and the UK government with some tough choices to make in the months ahead. Plus, a new tactical trade is short CSI 300....
Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth, reflecting higher term premia rather than a genuine liquidity boost. Yields...
