Inflation concerns are starting to ramp up again due to potentially inflationary policies from the new Trump administration. These concerns mostly affect the US inflation outlook. Evidence from forward-looking indicators shows that the global disinflationary trend remains intact. Today’s Special Rep...
GAI is a double-edged sword for S&S. Companies without GAI applications find that GAI crowds out their offering from IT budgets. In contrast, companies with GAI offering find that high inference costs make new products less lucrative than the cloud-subscription model that has propelled their margins...
Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a...
In this Special Report, we share our “thoughts from the field,” gathered during a week of panels and conversations at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Our main takeaways include China’s rising global presence (despite its deceptive absence at the forum), the rising consensus on AI investment as th...
We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers....
Last week, I visited clients in Europe. My recent report on Bessenomics – the name we gave to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's policy mix – was often the focal point of the discussions. We will continue discussing Bessenomics, its progress, and its investment implications in forthcoming reports...
We were stopped out of our defensive asset allocation recommendations last Thursday, when the S&P 500 closed above 6,100, but our reading of the labor market tea leaves still supports a bearish fundamental view....
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?...
We forecast Treasury and corporate bond returns in three different economic scenarios. This report focuses on what returns might look like in a scenario where inflation is sticky and the Fed makes a hawkish pivot....
