Trump, the Fed, the Russo-China bloc, Venezuela, and France are all seeing developments that imply some contrarian tactical views: Long USD, overweight US versus Europe, overweight Europe versus China, and short oil....
We see two risks that could spoil the rally in US risk assets: (1) a tariff-driven stagflation, and (2) a US Treasury tantrum. Our negative view on EM risk assets is primarily driven by the outlook for global trade, which is set to shrink in Q4 this year....
Today’s PCE report was broadly in line with expectations. Real consumer spending rebounded in July but remains only 0.3% above where it was in December....
Commercial indices’ limitations have made Value a fertile ground for stock pickers. Our Composite Value model has shown promise in circumventing these flaws and capturing alpha....
We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assumptions for US pension funds. Investors can obtain better returns by diversifying internationally and...
In this week’s Special Report, we introduce our newly constructed China High-Frequency Index (HFI). The HFI provides a timely measurement of China’s current economic conditions, helping investors to gauge cyclical turning points in the economy earlier and identify mini swings within a business cycle...
Peru’s April 2026 election will inject political volatility, but fundamentals are strong and we are constructive. Buy gold mining equities and gold on dips to capture the supportive global cycle and wait for a more attractive entry point for Peruvian assets....
In Section I, Doug notes that a negative stance toward stocks will require a meaningful and imminent deterioration in the US macro data given the ongoing impact of AI optimism on the global equity market. In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank ...
