A surge in UK employees on long-term sick leave or with a work limiting health condition explains stubbornly high UK wage inflation. This leaves the Bank of England and the UK government with some tough choices to make in the months ahead. Plus, a new tactical trade is short CSI 300....
Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth, reflecting higher term premia rather than a genuine liquidity boost. Yields...
Investors will be scrutinizing Nvidia’s earnings report tonight for signs of cracks in the massive, ongoing AI capex boom. I understand the temptation to do so, but I am not certain that capex is the best metric to focus on....
Economic activity plainly slowed in the first half, led by decelerating consumption and payrolls growth, but financial markets didn’t care. If the next two weeks of data don’t indicate that the May-June slowdown stretched into July and August, we will likely drop our defensive recommendations....
Our newly constructed China Economic Pressure Indicator shows intensifying household stress, raising the likelihood of new policy support in the coming months. We recommend a tactical trade as a stimulus hedge....
The AI boom has had less of an impact on the economy than widely believed. This may eventually change, but the risk is that investors grow impatient before it does....
EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads are set to widen. Within a global credit portfolio, maintain a neutral allocation to EM credit markets versus US corporate credit. Favor EM local currency bonds over EM USD bonds....
In 7 charts and under 1,000 words, we reveal the real story behind AI Venture Capital. Valuations are not at extremes and IPOs do not signal a replay of the 2000 Tech Bubble—yet....
The media is missing the big picture: the war is already contained. The falling oil price confirms that. We fully expect cold feet and volatility incidents in the very near term but there is only a 5% chance of Russia triggering a larger war with NATO – and that is what really matters....
GenAI momentum is building. Many companies are already reaping benefits from the technology. GenAI is disrupting entire industries, such as education, image generation, and staffing. Investors should prefer our “disruptors” basket over the “disrupted” basket....
