The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and European stocks should outperform US stocks over the next month or so, bu...
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s...
US stock market outperformance has been driven entirely by the 0.0002 percent of US superstar companies. But this superstar outperformance is based on two highly questionable assumptions: that all productivity gains from the generative-AI revolution will go into corporate profits; and specifically, ...
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio slightly underperformed in February, returning -0.7%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -0.6%. While we continue to monitor the portfolio monthly, over a quarter-on-quarter basis, USHQ posted meaningful outperformance vs. benchmark, generating +130bps of excess r...
This week we are sending you a sector chart pack. In the front section of the chart pack, we review February’s performance, take stock of the recent macroeconomic developments, and examine whether market rotation will continue. We also review whether the US valuation premium relative to Europe is ju...
Fears of Europe’s decline due to Russian aggression and shifting US policy are overblown. President Trump’s tough stance on Ukraine is a strategic move to consolidate domestic support, not an abandonment of Europe, while Russia’s threat is exaggerated. As Europe responds with higher defense spending...
Are you sure you are in a trade war-induced selloff and/or recession? Or, is America – writ large – the bubble? Fed a steady dose of fiscal profligacy over the past five years, the US economy and its various associated assets have become fat and complacent. As such, the end of the fiscal gravy train...
Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy....
