This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish…
We recently pointed to the UK Budget announcement as a pivotal event for UK assets. Following an initially positive reception, the market has turned and priced in further fiscal premia in UK assets, with both gilts and the pound…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Developed markets Flash PMIs estimates for October were mixed, with resilient US numbers and weakness elsewhere. The eurozone composite met expectations but remains below the 50-level expansion threshold. Germany…
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging. According to Rightmove, total home…
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the…
In this Insight, we assess whether investors should expect fiscal turbulence in the UK, that will drive UK yields higher and the pound lower.
Our Q3 portfolio was defensive, which we believe will be the appropriate stance in the next six-to-twelve months. Data coming out of the US has remained robust which could cause US bond yields to temporarily overshoot. An overshoot…