MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term,…
Democrats remain slightly favored for the White House because they are the four-year incumbent presidential party and the economy is not in recession. But if the unemployment rate rises in the lead up to November, then Biden and…
Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.
Although a strategic détente between the US and China would benefit both sides, BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service warns that the trade war will continue. The team has argued that Biden and Xi would fail to…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash underscores the instability of Iran and the Middle East, which is getting worse, not better…
The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Indian Prime Minister Modi is on track to be reelected for his third term, with the latest polls in April averaging 385 seats for the National Democratic Alliance,…
