Ciclos Económicos

Aplicamos un enfoque sistemático para invertir basado en sorpresas relacionadas con la economía, la inflación y la política monetaria en el mercado de divisas. Las señales de este marco son ampliamente coherentes con las perspectivas tácticas de nuestros estrategas de FX, que anticipan una pausa en la caída del USD y una reversión parcial de la reciente fortaleza del euro. 

Recientemente, las acciones de pequeña capitalización han mostrado signos de superar al mercado. En este informe, examinamos si el repunte es sostenible analizando las tendencias estructurales a largo plazo, el contexto macroeconómico, el impacto de los aranceles y otros factores clave.

Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.

Oil has borne the brunt of the year-to-date deterioration in cyclically sensitive financial assets. It is a key underperformer both within the commodity space and among global risk assets. This underperformance underscores that in addition to the trade war-induced headwind to demand, bearish supply-side developments are also weighing down on crude prices. As we discuss in this report, these dynamics will likely continue exerting downside pressure on oil prices over the coming weeks and months. 

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.