Economy
A stronger Norwegian krone has opened the door to more rate cuts, making Norwegian government bonds more attractive. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, European Strategist. With its surprise 25 basis point cut, the Norges Bank made its first…
BCA’s EM strategists remain downbeat on EM equities despite a bearish US dollar view, citing profit headwinds and limited valuation support. The ongoing EM earnings recovery has been narrowly concentrated in TMT sectors across China, Taiwan, and Korea,…
Worsening manufacturing momentum supports a long duration stance as recession risks remain elevated. The June Philly Fed survey came in below expectations, unchanged at -4.0. While shipments increased, new orders decelerated and employment measures fell.…
In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.
Turkey’s tight policy stance will weigh on growth and earnings, reinforcing our bearish view on Turkish equities. The central bank held rates at 46% and maintained a hawkish bias, consistent with efforts to bring inflation down from 35% to single digits.…
Tightening financial conditions, deflationary headwinds, and rising geopolitical risks argue for short-term caution on European assets. European equities have outperformed in 2025, with the EURO STOXX 50 beating the S&P 500 and EUR/USD moving higher. This…
European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank cut by 25 bps to 0%, in…
In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank.
Our Geopolitical strategists expect US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran, raising near-term risks to oil supply and market stability. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional oil production and transport infrastructure,…
UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting expectations at 3.5%, down from…