Can Brazil Escape The Public Debt Trap?
The new fiscal framework will fail to prevent the rise of the public debt-to-GDP ratio as it relies on overly optimistic revenue growth. A rising public debt-to-GDP ratio will lead to a widening fiscal risk premium in Brazilian financial markets. We are making two new recommendations: downgrade Brazilian sovereign credit from neutral to underweight, and go long Brazilian CDS / short Mexican CDS.
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BCA Research | Emerging Markets Strategy
Critical input for global and EM investors as it provides global macro investment themes as well as recommendations for EM equities, currencies, and fixed income.
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