Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

Rising term premium is often read as a fiscal warning sign. We show the real driver is monetary policy uncertainty, and what the implications are for global term premia going forward.

Despite today’s hold, the bar for a rate hike in September remains low and contingent on the next two core CPI reports.

Special Report

Taiwan will not be invaded soon but focus on external constraints, not internal. Strongmen or “visionary” leaders can override geopolitical constraints at critical junctures, at least initially. 

Special Report

For almost two decades, beta was the only game in town and alpha a loser's game. This era is ending, and we lay out why a more multipolar, dirigiste, and AI-disrupted world is pushing dispersion structurally higher, creating renewed alpha opportunities.

Special Report

Today's concerns about Private Credit are overstated. We provide our three-criteria framework that investors can use to track Private Credit's doomsday risk. Systemic crises build over years and decades. In Private Credit, that build is happening now.

Special Report

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to watch before buying the yen this winter.

Small-cap outperformance has been driven mostly by within-sector stock selection, not differences in sector weighting. With the small-cap earnings catch-up reversing and leverage rising, we would fade the low-quality small-cap rally. We still want cyclical and AI exposure, but through higher-quality large caps rather than highly levered small-cap Tech. We are also opening a small-cap Health Care trade as an idiosyncratic way to gain exposure to the M&A cycle.

Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications. 

Global equities have reached extremes on multiple measures, none of which are reliable timing tools. But imbalances in economics and investing can build for far longer than rational analysis would predict - and usually unravel much faster than investors expect.

Special Report

Most Fed and pundit assessments of inflation expectations are overly narrow, focusing too much on long-term market-based measures. We favor a more qualitative approach that asks whether the inflation outlook is influencing household and business decision making.