Portfolio

Investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to both equities and the economy. Despite a rising long end, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and both nominal growth and corporate profits is at five-year lows and falling. Remain overweight equities. Within Fixed Income, Upgrade High Yield and Downgrade Government Bonds and EM Debt. Downgrade Chinese Equities to Neutral.

Special Report

We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.9% over the next 10-to-15 years. In this update, we include hedging costs projections and revamp our scenario analysis to incorporate hypothetical outcomes to the AI capex cycle.

BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, but the conviction is not the same everywhere.

Investors have remained very skeptical about the profitability of the AI buildout. However, this earnings season the ROI has begun to show up, giving the bull market a green light to go higher. Remain overweight equities and continue to favor the hyperscalers.

Special Report

For almost two decades, beta was the only game in town and alpha a loser's game. This era is ending, and we lay out why a more multipolar, dirigiste, and AI-disrupted world is pushing dispersion structurally higher, creating renewed alpha opportunities.

Special Report

Today's concerns about Private Credit are overstated. We provide our three-criteria framework that investors can use to track Private Credit's doomsday risk. Systemic crises build over years and decades. In Private Credit, that build is happening now.

Special Report

BCA's bull/bear debate webcast, held on July 13, 2026 (replay here) and moderated by Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic, pitted Peter Berezin and Arthur Budaghyan on the bearish side against Juan Correa and Noah Weisberger on the bullish side. This edited summary condenses, reorganizes by theme, and lightly paraphrases their remarks.

Beginning with this Quarterly report, The Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets teams are combining our quarterly outlooks into a single, unified framework, reflecting a more integrated approach to portfolio construction. In this joint outlook we upgrade Private Equity to overweight. Sentiment has soured, LPs are starved of distributions, flows have collapsed, valuations are trending lower, Secondaries are outperforming Primaries, and GP stocks are experiencing their worst underperformance on record. All signs of a durable bottom.

Special Report

How should I hedge my portfolio for the next bear market? This is a question many of our clients face, and one that investors too often answer on the basis of intuition or narrative. The All-Defense Chartpack aims to provide a solid starting point for that analysis, grounded in empirical data. It examines the historical performance of a wide range of defensive assets across several decades of large drawdowns, and adds further considerations on likely future performance and the tradeoffs each safe haven offers.

Special Report

AI dominates markets, but concentration is risk. Real Estate is the diversifier. It outperformed during the Dot-Com bust and will do so again if the AI trade unwinds. Even Office, the sector arguably most exposed to AI disruption, will prove more resilient than bears expect.