Portfolio
Public-private allocation guidance, capital market assumptions, and strategic insight to help investors build forward-looking portfolios they can act on and defend.
History suggests central bank policy determines how bonds behave in recessions, even for high-debt countries. The Fed should be able to cut into a slowdown, making Treasurys an effective equity hedge… for USD-based investors. Foreign investors will see currency depreciation erase their gains.
Higher rates have changed the opportunity set. Overweight High-Yield Credit, both within asset allocation and versus Private Credit. Investors are no longer picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
Nerves are rising around Data Center financing but most of the fear comes from GPU financing. GPUs are not Data Centers. Data Center collateral is solid, and so are the tenants.
It is that time of year again for our annual Private Equity & Sports report. This year, we examine private capital's entry into college sports. Athletic departments generate significant revenue, but margins are under pressure. Colleges still hold untapped assets that private partners will help monetize.
Investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to both equities and the economy. Despite a rising long end, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and both nominal growth and corporate profits is at five-year lows and falling. Remain overweight equities. Within Fixed Income, Upgrade High Yield and Downgrade Government Bonds and EM Debt. Downgrade Chinese Equities to Neutral.
