FICC | Monetary Policy

Despite recent increases, long-maturity Treasury yields are roughly consistent with fundamental fair value. We see limited value in long duration plays.

July’s CPI reading was low enough to keep the Fed on hold for now, but near-term upside inflation risks remain.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2026.

Despite today’s hold, the bar for a rate hike in September remains low and contingent on the next two core CPI reports.

Special Report

For almost two decades, beta was the only game in town and alpha a loser's game. This era is ending, and we lay out why a more multipolar, dirigiste, and AI-disrupted world is pushing dispersion structurally higher, creating renewed alpha opportunities.

Special Report

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to watch before buying the yen this winter.

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.

Special Report

We discuss what recommendations to expect from the Fed’s balance sheet task force. We conclude that any future balance sheet consolidation will be smaller than many anticipate.

Kevin Warsh announced an ambitious reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. We discuss the potential impact and the current outlook for interest rates.