Explore FICC
FICC | Monetary Policy
Analysis of central bank decisions and their investment implications across global interest rate and liquidity conditions. Typically published weekly.
FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair.
The Fed will not cut rates again until core inflation trends lower. This remains likely as the tariff impact on goods inflation wanes, but the recent energy price shock could delay any meaningful downtrend.
The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.