FICC | Bonds

We discuss the takeaways from this week’s central bank meetings amidst the unfolding energy price shock.

The Fed will not cut rates again until core inflation trends lower. This remains likely as the tariff impact on goods inflation wanes, but the recent energy price shock could delay any meaningful downtrend.

The gap between PCE and CPI inflation will narrow within the next few months, mostly driven by core PCE inflation converging toward its trimmed mean.

Special Report

Momentum behind nuclear energy is accelerating, yet financing remains the critical constraint. In this Special Report, we examine how evolving taxonomies and green bond frameworks are reshaping access to sustainable capital and assess whether they can meaningfully support the revival of nuclear energy.

The recent oil price shock reinforces our view that inflation will surprise to the upside during the next few months but fall rapidly in H2 2026.

If the 2022 roadmap is any guide, equity markets and cyclical currencies will trough only after confirming that the peak in energy prices is in the rearview mirror. In the very near term, investors should focus on P&L preservation. Reduce exposure to equities, and seek refuge in gold, and inflation-linked bonds (ILBs). Amid a very different demand side than in 2022, today’s supply shock is unlikely to generate lasting inflation, and investors should fade rate-hike odds.

Looking through month-to-month volatility, job growth’s underlying trend is stable and consistent with a flat-to-slightly higher unemployment rate.

Special Report

Europe’s fiscal debate has resurfaced as interest rates normalize and new spending pressures emerge. Yet alarmism is misplaced. Aggregate debt levels are high but broadly stable, servicing costs remain historically low, and r–g dynamics are broadly benign. Fiscal space matters less as the ECB and EU backstop growth and spreads. Structural reforms—not wanton fiscal spending—is Europe’s real opportunity.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2026.

Special Report

Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment.