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FICC | Bonds
Actionable asset allocation recommendations for your bond portfolio, drawing on macro analysis of interest rates and global debt market dynamics. Typically published weekly.
The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead.
With central banks largely on hold, the return of a lower volatility environment is bringing carry trades back into focus. We outline the most attractive carry opportunities across global fixed income markets.
We recommend increasing exposure to spread product as the US economy transitions back into a low rate vol regime.
The rates market is moving back into a low vol regime, but with yields at a higher level. This argues for maximizing carry across the Treasury curve.
Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields.
Inflation’s underlying trend was headed lower prior to the Iran war. This makes the recent back-up in bond yields look like an attractive buying opportunity.
US employment data show some tentative signs of job growth acceleration and stable utilization. We see breakeven monthly job growth as closer to +30k per month than zero.
We are pleased to introduce our new Quarterly Investment Outlook, a joint publication bringing together the European Investment Strategy (EIS), Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS), and Foreign Exchange Strategy teams. The main takeaway of the current edition is that investors should not add risk. Markets are still focused on inflation, but the binding constraint is growth: if the energy shock persists into mid-April, a rapid shift toward recession pricing will follow.
In today’s Strategy Insight, we show why both a quick resolution and a prolonged crisis ultimately point to lower yields.