FICC | Bonds

July’s CPI reading was low enough to keep the Fed on hold for now, but near-term upside inflation risks remain.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2026.

Special Report

Rising term premium is often read as a fiscal warning sign. We show the real driver is monetary policy uncertainty, and what the implications are for global term premia going forward.

Despite today’s hold, the bar for a rate hike in September remains low and contingent on the next two core CPI reports.

Special Report

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to watch before buying the yen this winter.

Special Report

Most Fed and pundit assessments of inflation expectations are overly narrow, focusing too much on long-term market-based measures. We favor a more qualitative approach that asks whether the inflation outlook is influencing household and business decision making.

In this Strategy Insight, we assess how Middle East-related energy and shipping disruptions are shaping the global inflation outlook and review the implications for inflation-linked bond markets. We also examine the outlook for core inflation and the resulting implications for central bank policy and duration positioning.

June’s low CPI reading rules out a July rate hike, but September is still on the table.

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.