Insights

We wish all our French clients Bonne Fête Nationale! The rest of the world knows the holiday by its other name, Bastille Day. It is fitting, therefore, that we publish today GeoMacro Beta report on the coming political earthquake in France. ...

History suggests that the equity impact of rate moves depends heavily on the stock/bond correlation regime, and today’s positive correlation regime leaves the bond market as the main risk to equity multiples....

The US and Iran have engaged in a dramatic increase in kinetic activity over the past several days. It all appears to have started on July 6-7, when Iran allegedly attacked several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, vessels that were using the US-recommended route closer to Oman. Following US strikes ag...

We continue to overweight Mexican stocks, local bonds, sovereign credit, and currency within their respective EM portfolios. Also, stay long Mexican equities / short the S&P500....

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack....

The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelligence....

The rebound in China's producer prices and profits this year owes more to external demand than to meaningful progress under Beijing's anti-involution campaign....

As part of our new and improved GeoMacro service, please find attached our Global Risk Outlook, a quarterly digest of scenario probabilities and estimated market impacts for all the major geopolitical topics in the world today. ...

We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q2 and look ahead as fixed income markets move beyond the US-Iran conflict, which is finding its kinetic equilibrium. Valuations and growth differentials are moving against continued US Treasury outperformance....

Just as we declared that geopolitical risk has peaked for the year – in yesterday’s Alpha report – President Trump has declared the ceasefire with Iran over after repeated violations via strikes against three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. That is the life of an investment strategist. But the unde...