The Q4 earnings results were spectacular but are now in the rear-view mirror. Now, investors are laser-focused on tariff threats, earnings headwinds brought about by a stronger dollar, and an unhappy consumer. Our analysis of earnings commentary found that, while companies often refer to tariffs dur...
President Trump may not avoid recession. If he does, he faces stagflation, given tariffs, counter-tariff stimulus, and the missing ingredient: an oil price spike....
OPEC+ is planning to boost its crude oil output at a time of lingering demand weakness. What is driving this decision? And will Chinese oil consumption – historically a key contributor to global oil demand growth – reaccelerate and justify the coalition’s decision to bring back more supply to the ma...
The ports that BlackRock acquired on both sides of the Panama Canal appear to be a bargain in terms of the entry valuation. But are the risks being appropriately compensated? In this prefatory report, we prepare investors for our upcoming Infrastructure reports, which will highlight geopolitical ris...
Stock market has continued to sell off as investors try to price President Trump’s trade policy, geopolitical volatility, global manufacturing slowdown, and the apparently cavalier attitude by the White House regarding the risk of a recession. At the same time, it is interesting that the USD and Big...
In this report, we explore the Canadian provincial bond market by developing a model to analyze its main drivers and understand the impact of a potential trade war between Canada and the US....
Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its start date. We are therefore tactically downgrading equities to underw...
There is an alternative to investing in US stocks: Do it via Europe (DIVE). Allocate to European sectors or stocks that are highly and positively correlated with the Magnificent 7 but do not suffer stretched valuations....
This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing Models....
We attempt to model the term premium in this report with inflation uncertainty, the stock-bond correlation, and “Private Treasury Absorption.” Using our model, we estimate the fair value for the US term premium is 89 basis points above the current level. We also find that fiscal concerns are overrat...
