The fiscal stimulus announced at this year’s National People’s Congress is only slightly larger than last year’s. Notably, the details of the measures suggest that it will be challenging for fiscal stimulus to effectively counterbalance the country’s economic difficulties this year....
This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for investors to track in the current environment....
Colombian financial markets have rallied on the expectation that a right-wing government will be elected in 2026. We take a contrarian bearish stance on the nation's financial markets. Colombia is suffering from two structural macro issues – unsustainable public debt and plunging energy exports – th...
The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and European stocks should outperform US stocks over the next month or so, bu...
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s...
US stock market outperformance has been driven entirely by the 0.0002 percent of US superstar companies. But this superstar outperformance is based on two highly questionable assumptions: that all productivity gains from the generative-AI revolution will go into corporate profits; and specifically, ...
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio slightly underperformed in February, returning -0.7%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -0.6%. While we continue to monitor the portfolio monthly, over a quarter-on-quarter basis, USHQ posted meaningful outperformance vs. benchmark, generating +130bps of excess r...
