Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil prices are obviously the conduit between that policy and the markets. On the other hand, growth is al...
Investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to both equities and the economy. Despite a rising long end, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and both nominal growth and corporate profits is at five-year lows and falling. Remain overweight equities. Within Fixed Income,...
The wide crack spread reflects a bifurcated oil market. The severity of the crude oil disruption has recently softened, while the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts have created a perfect storm for refined product markets. Going forward, even though conditions are not yet in place for the crack sp...
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, counterbalanced by a slight overweight to bonds, and a significant overweight to cash. The model is positive on the US dollar, modestly negative on gold, and bullish on copper and oil....
We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.9% over the next 10-to-15 years. In this update, we include hedging costs projections and revamp our scenario analysis to incorporate hypothetical outcomes to the AI capex cycle....
An investor might not guess it from the Trump administration’s impatience with bond-market, military and tariff roadblocks, but the US economy is faring just fine. Asset allocators should remain fully invested as per their benchmarks....
Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read. This quick Insight is neither sober nor data driven. It is hyperbolic and based on “vibes.”...
Poland’s near-term growth story remains compelling: surging EU investment should cushion European weakness and support equity outperformance. But the clock is ticking. Demographics, skills shortages, and fiscal deterioration will increasingly constrain convergence. Favor Polish equities and the bell...
US aerospace and defense stocks still have a structural tailwind from geopolitics, but face rising cyclical challenges from macro and market fundamentals, as well as eventual Iran and Ukraine ceasefires and political change in the United States....
The PCE/CPI gap is an increasingly important factor driving the near-term outlook for Fed policy. We discuss the drivers of that gap and conclude that it’s likely to narrow in the coming months....
