Political instability across Asia is colliding with the trade war fallout, forcing Southeast Asian economies to ease monetary and fiscal policy, while pushing the Bank of Japan in the opposite direction....
We are turning more constructive on Chinese internet stocks after several years of caution. We recommend going long offshore internet equities in absolute terms and upgrading MSCI China to overweight in a global equity portfolio....
While it is impossible to know exactly when global equities will peak, there are now enough vulnerabilities to justify keeping one’s finger near the eject button....
The ECB stood pat today, yet the policy path remains fraught with uncertainty as domestic resilience collides with global headwinds. This dichotomy continues to hold important implications for European assets over the coming months....
High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve....
Russia’s recalcitrance will probably trigger a near-term global stock market correction by prompting larger sanctions and derailing US-China talks. But Israel’s actions do not raise our odds of a major oil shock....
For the next few months at least, inflation risk trumps recession risk for both US markets and world markets. This because, correctly gauged, the US jobs market is still supply-constrained with ‘jobs looking for a worker’ exceeding ‘workers looking for a job’ by 0.4 percent. A still supply-constrain...
Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the currency risk vis-à-vis the euro....
Silver, platinum, and palladium may ride the same cyclical tailwinds as gold in the coming months. However, four key risks threaten their relative performance versus the yellow metal....
