We still believe a recession looms, but it has yet to rear its ugly head. We continue to recommend investors position defensively, but we will change tack if clear signs of a recession don’t emerge soon....
This week our three screeners identify equity plays on copper prices, stocks that are considered “boring” but are solid earners during heightened uncertainty, and stocks which are positively correlated with Bitcoin....
The pace of global political change is not unprecedented, but it is accelerating, driven by demographic forces as well as failures of conventional military deterrence....
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1....
Economic growth and rapid expansions do not always translate into higher EPS and shareholder returns. One of the key reasons is dilution. We offer a typology of dilution: (1) “offensive”, (2) “defensive”, (3) corporate governance-linked, and (4) idiosyncratic cases....
Saudi Arabia’s middling position in our FDI Attractiveness Index reflects closed trade channels and patchy infrastructure that weigh on an otherwise promising investment story. Addressing those gaps could significantly bolster the Kingdom’s appeal as an FDI host....
Upward pressure on Japan’s real bond yield justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech. Plus: two new tactical trades are long JPY/EUR and short platinum....
