Developed Countries
US November housing data was mixed, but still reflected a weak picture. Housing starts were down 1.8% m/m, below expectations of a 2.6% increase. However, building permits were stronger than expected, increasing 6.1%. Units under construction remain in free…
Our Global Fixed Income and FX strategists published their 2025 outlook, and provide five key views for the year ahead. Duration revival: After three years of underperformance versus cash, government bonds will outperform in either a soft-landing or a…
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.25%-4.5% range, as expected. However, it was a “hawkish cut”; the FOMC signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. The statement signalled less urgency, saying the “extent and timing” for further cuts…
The November UK CPI, in line with estimates, hit an eight-month high, accelerating from 2.3% y/y to 2.6%. Core and services inflation were also strong at 3.5% (vs. 3.3% in October) and 5.0% (flat from October), respectively. Services inflation strength will…
November retail sales were roughly in line with expectations, with headline growth at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.4% in October. Vehicle sales were solid. Excluding auto and gas, sales rose a more modest 0.2% m/m, below expectations. The control group grew 0.4% m/m after…
Our European Investment Strategy team published their annual outlook, outlining five key themes that will shape Europe’s economy and markets in 2025. Europe will enter a mild recession in H1 2025, but growth is expected to rebound quickly in the second half.…
The November Canadian CPI was slightly below estimates, declining to 1.9% y/y from 2.0%, below the BoC’s 2% target but within the 1%-to-3% range. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, were flat at 2.6% and 2.7% respectively after revisions. CPI…
European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…