FICC

In today’s Strategy Insight, we discuss the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of Japan, following the 25-bps rate hike overnight, and what it means for JGBs and the yen.

This week’s report looks at the US dollar, from the lens of one very cyclical currency – the Australian dollar.

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months.

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we outline the three themes that we believe will drive commodity markets this year: (1) demand growth will remain sluggish across cyclical commodities (2) supply-side developments will ultimately be bearish for oil prices, and (3) traditional relationships between commodity prices and financial variables may not hold.

Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.

In this week’s report, we look at the likely trend for bonds yields and the dollar in the coming months.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review.