CoreMacro

Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?

The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.

Special Report

China has become less reliant on exports to advanced economies, and its products have successfully penetrated developing economies. Exports to the US make up 3% of Chinese GDP, while exports to all developing economies account for 10% of its GDP. China’s trade pivot from advanced to developing economies has economic, political, and geopolitical ramifications.

Special Report

The US fiscal outlook is more unappetizing than it was before the pandemic, but we are not convinced that a difficult day of reckoning awaits. A Treasury market crisis is conceivable, but it is far from inevitable.

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

Special Report

In this Special Report, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s new service – GeoMacro Strategy – presents his controversial view that Trump could very well be a boon for globalization.

The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates but the global manufacturing cycle.

Special Report

Multinationals are attempting to expand their supply chains beyond China, but the relocation process has been slower than expected. In the coming years, however, geopolitical tensions, changes in China’s business environment, and rising competition from Chinese producers could accelerate multinationals' departure from China.

The analysis of price complexity strongly suggests that the ‘yen carry trade’ and the AI bubble are one and the same trade, and that the trade has further to unwind. Plus, go tactically overweight China (CHIQ).

The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?