Stock market has continued to sell off as investors try to price President Trump’s trade policy, geopolitical volatility, global manufacturing slowdown, and the apparently cavalier attitude by the White House regarding the risk of a recession. At the same time, it is interesting that the USD and Big...
In this report, we explore the Canadian provincial bond market by developing a model to analyze its main drivers and understand the impact of a potential trade war between Canada and the US....
There is an alternative to investing in US stocks: Do it via Europe (DIVE). Allocate to European sectors or stocks that are highly and positively correlated with the Magnificent 7 but do not suffer stretched valuations....
Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its start date. We are therefore tactically downgrading equities to underw...
This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing Models....
We attempt to model the term premium in this report with inflation uncertainty, the stock-bond correlation, and “Private Treasury Absorption.” Using our model, we estimate the fair value for the US term premium is 89 basis points above the current level. We also find that fiscal concerns are overrat...
The fiscal stimulus announced at this year’s National People’s Congress is only slightly larger than last year’s. Notably, the details of the measures suggest that it will be challenging for fiscal stimulus to effectively counterbalance the country’s economic difficulties this year....
This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for investors to track in the current environment....
Colombian financial markets have rallied on the expectation that a right-wing government will be elected in 2026. We take a contrarian bearish stance on the nation's financial markets. Colombia is suffering from two structural macro issues – unsustainable public debt and plunging energy exports – th...
