This week, we present five of the more interesting yield curve trades in the Developed Markets for the latter half of 2016.
As the sole shock absorber left in the global economy, FX markets will grow more volatile. The currency market's reaction to the recent Fed minutes exemplifies this phenomenon. Despite its sores and blisters, the U.S. economy wins…
The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…
Reflation continues to dictate short-term market moves. Behind this sugar-high, the global economic backdrop remains poor. Commodity currencies can rally for a few more weeks, but once markets refocus on Chinese and EM core…
For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded,…
The dollar countertrend move has more downside, but beyond the next few months, the dollar remains in a cyclical bull market. Improvements in global growth, even if temporary, are likely to lift non-U.S. rates more than U.S. ones.…
No significant change in allocation was made. Direction wise, weights in Spain and Switzerland were increased slightly at the expense of Netherland and Sweden.
There are a number of warning signs that the global and EM equity bounce is unsustainable. The latest episode of housing recovery in China will prove temporary due to still-large imbalances. Overweight Indian stocks: the credit cycle…