Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets

26 Feb 2016

by Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist, Developed Markets ex US & Head of Research Innovation

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its fair value is rising on the back of a positive terms-of-trade shock. The yuan is fairly valued. Most commodity currencies are not yet cheap.

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