The U.S. and the global economies are improving. A synchronized upswing normally trumps the Fed in determining the path for the dollar. U.S. inflation expectations are likely to rise relative to the rest of the world, weighing on the…
Over the past 12 months, the yen surged, powered by global deflationary fears. Japanese monetary conditions massively tightened, causing additional yen strength, creating a vicious circle. Policymakers will respond, but markets are…
Global uncertainty is elevated, but markets know this. Brexit could prove extremely negative for the global economy if it prompts a questioning of the EU's integrity. The cyclical outlook for the pound remains poor, but a short-term…
Among the myriad of troubling signs for the global economy, some developments on the inventory and deflationary fronts could point to a brighter future. While still not our base case, those factors need to be monitored. With Brexit…
The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying…
The 1990s mid-cycle slowdown is an appropriate analogue to current market conditions. A lower dollar was the key ingredient the easing in monetary conditions that resolved this episode. This suggests that today, as the sole economic…
The RMB has been steadily depreciating versus the U.S. dollar and has dropped to a new cyclical low versus its trade-weighted basket. All the while, Chinese domestic interest rates have lately drifted higher. When global investors…
For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.
The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.