The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-…
Recent Asian trade data do not provide any optimism that the global manufacturing slump is nearing its end. South Korean exports collapsed by 16.1% y/y in the first 20 days of May. While the decline was broad-based, sales to…
Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…
Remain cautious and defensive overall. Stay long DM Europe over EM Europe. Look for EM opportunities in Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China.
Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.
Please note I will be hosting a live webcast on September 29, 2022 at 9:00 AM HKT for the APAC region. I will discuss the global/China/EM macro outlooks and financial market implications. For clients in the Americas and EMEA, we had a…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…