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No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second quarter is murky, investors should stay defensive this year on the whole.

BCA Research | GeoMacro

A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.

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