Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend a long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade over the next 6–12 months, with a positive return profile in both bullish and bearish AI scenarios. Korean and Taiwanese…
We recommend a new relative tech equity trade that will likely produce positive returns over the next six to 12 months, regardless of whether the AI hype continues or reverses.
A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend downgrading Korean equities from overweight to neutral and staying long 10-year Korean bonds, currency unhedged. A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple through the Korean…
A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple throughout the Korean economy. We are downgrading the KOSPI from overweight to neutral and reiterating a long position in 10-year domestic bonds, currency unhedged.
June Taiwanese export orders surprised to the upside, but weakness in non-tech trade and in broader East Asian exports underscores the narrowness of the global recovery. Orders rose 24.6% y/y, accelerating from 18.5% in May, though m…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
The latest data on Asian exports and manufacturing suggest that the global trade outlook remains downbeat. Korean exports in USD terms grew in June by 4.3% y/y. The three-month moving average is 2.2%. Assuming Q2 export shipments…
East Asian trade data has been disappointing. Preliminary February data for Japanese machine tool orders showed a slowdown to 3.5% y/y from 4.7% in January. Broader machinery orders were down 3.5% m/m in January. Taiwanese exports…
East Asian trade data was mixed in December and January. Taiwanese export orders for December were stronger than expected, rebounding to 20.8% y/y from 3.3% in November. On the other hand, Korean exports for the first 20 days of…