Special Report

The Russian mutiny reveals the underlying trend of domestic instability. Russian instability is negative for global stability. The endgame of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem, likely pushing up the equity risk premium…

The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies…

Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long…

No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…

Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…

Special Report

China is launching a diplomatic charm offensive to improve relations with the world excluding the United States. But China’s proposals in Ukraine and the Middle East are overrated in their ability to restore global stability and…

Special Report

The first legislative meeting of Xi Jinping’s third term suggests that Chinese policy is continuous and consistent with the previous ten years, which is negative for long-term productivity.

Special Report

Investors should avoid / stay underweight Turkish stocks and local currency bonds versus their respective EM benchmarks. Stay underweight Turkish sovereign credit.

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…

The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.